Will the Republican Party win the CA-18 House seat?
Current price
2.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$19.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for California's 18th Congressional District. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including fallback provisions for independent candidates based on their expressed intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup in case of ambiguity. California election certification can take several weeks, but the resolution criteria and official backup source make the outcome straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for California's 18th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-18 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If there is ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission serves as the deciding official source.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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