Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?
Current price
96.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.7%
$63.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard election mechanics for the 2026 midterm race in California's 6th Congressional District. Primary resolution relies on an unlisted consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated outlet, though the Federal Election Commission serves as an explicit official fallback if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Rules explicitly address potential third-party or independent winners by assessing their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called, limiting interpretation surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the California's 6th congressional district (CA-06) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-06 seat is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party, such as the Republican Party. Party affiliation is based on the ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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