Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?
Current price
1.05¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$26.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party is determined for the specified 2026 congressional race. It establishes explicit criteria for party affiliation, including fallback rules regarding caucus intent for candidates not explicitly listed under a major party on the ballot. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which requires some subjective evaluation, there is a definitive fallback to official election results from the Federal Election Commission in cases of ambiguity. The mechanics are standard for US House race markets and provide minimal surprise for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 6th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-06 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation are assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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