Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat?
Current price
6.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.2%
$10.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on the winning candidate's party affiliation for California's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single direct official feed, with Federal Election Commission records designated as a tiebreaker if reporting is ambiguous. The criteria for determining party identity are clearly outlined, including specific guidance on evaluating caucus intent for independent or third-party candidates at the time all House races are decided.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the California's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes caucus intentions if the candidate lacks a ballot-listed party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome. The Federal Election Commission serves as the official decider if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official authority in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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