Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat?
Current price
95.9¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.9%
$26.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winning candidate and their party affiliation will be determined for the 2026 CA-03 House election, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated caucus intent. Initial resolution relies on an undefined consensus of credible media reporting, but the market provides a firm fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if ambiguity arises. California vote tallying frequently takes weeks to finalize, and party affiliation is locked only when all 2026 House elections nationwide are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the CA-03 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is determined by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Day:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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