Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$20.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on whether the winning candidate for Arizona's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The rules establish clear fallback mechanisms for third-party or independent candidates based on caucus intent. The outcome relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, but includes a definitive backstop to official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous, keeping the risk of an unexpected resolution low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Arizona's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the AZ-05 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome. If credible reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the market.
Key dates
- Midterm election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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