Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$60K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome depends on which party wins the Alabama 7th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, specifying ballot listing first and stated caucus intention for independent or third-party candidates. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible news reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as an official fallback if reporting is unclear. The main factor to watch is the timing of resolution, as it hinges on when all nationwide House races are conclusively called, and official FEC certification can take several weeks to months after election day if a race is contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Alabama's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the AL-07 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed with either major party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party under those terms. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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