Will the Democratic Party win the AL-05 House seat?
Current price
4.6¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.6%
$35.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Alabama's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how non-major party affiliations are handled, relying on stated caucus intent at the time all House elections are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if ambiguity arises. The main variable to monitor is timing, as resolution waits until House races nationwide are conclusively called, which can take days or weeks in close cycles.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins Alabama's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the AL-05 seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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