Will the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat?
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Why it moved
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the AL-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, with candidate party affiliation determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the Republican Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Republican Party at that same time. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Republican Party, as determined by the same criteria. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government. The Federal Election Commission is the specified source for official results.
Key dates
- Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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