Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
11¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$309K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly asks whether Andrey Gyurov will win the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly covering any required second-round runoff. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by the official tally from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. A generous long-stop date of December 31, 2027 provides ample buffer for certification delays or rescheduled votes, resolving to 'Other' only if results remain unknown by that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andrey Gyurov will win the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Andrey Gyurov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — If the result is not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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