Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$21.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on whether the named candidate wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly covering potential second-round runoff votes. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting with a clear fallback to official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission. A generous long-stop date of December 31, 2027 provides ample buffer for any scheduling shifts or certification delays, with an unambiguous resolution to Other if no outcome is determined by that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rosen Plevneliev will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Rosen Plevneliev wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including via a potential second round. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by the cutoff date. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results published by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: Elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Result resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria as the official authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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