Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$40.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines the winning condition as Vassil Terziev winning the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly covering any potential runoff round. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically falls back to the official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. A generous backstop date of December 31, 2027 ensures ample time for election certification, resolving to Other if no outcome is determined by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vassil Terziev will win the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vassil Terziev wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second round. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the outcome of the election is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results reported by the Bulgarian government's Central Election Commission (CEC).
Key dates
- Expected election period: Elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff date: — If the election result is not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.