Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$18K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the winning condition as the specified candidate winning the next presidential election in Bulgaria, explicitly including any necessary runoff rounds. While the primary resolution mechanism references a consensus of credible reporting, it is firmly anchored by a designated official fallback source, the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC). There is a long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to an alternate outcome if the election outcome remains unknown, giving ample time for official certification without imposing unexpected early resolution conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Atanas Atanasov will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Atanas Atanasov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, taking into account any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results reported by the Bulgarian government's Central Election Commission (CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the result is not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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