Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$18.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clear and standard for an election outcome. The market specifically accounts for potential runoff rounds and sets a generous deadline of December 31, 2027, leaving ample time past the expected Fall 2026 election date. While the primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, the rules provide an explicit fallback to the official results certified by Bulgaria's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Krum Zarkov will win the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Krum Zarkov wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) if any ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election: Bulgarian presidential elections are expected to be held in the fall of 2026.
- Resolution deadline: — If the election result is not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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