Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$19.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly asks if the named candidate will win the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly covering any potential second-round runoff. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but directly points to the official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission as the authoritative backup in case of ambiguity. There is also an extended backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the election outcome cannot be established before then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yanaki Stoilov will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, accounting for any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yanaki Stoilov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Bulgarian government if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: Bulgarian presidential elections are expected in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — Election result must be known by 11:59 PM ET, otherwise the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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