Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$16.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on whether Natalia Kiselova wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly factoring in potential runoff rounds. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed by the official Central Election Commission as the definitive fallback in case of ambiguity. There is a generous long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the election outcome remains unresolved by that time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Natalia Kiselova will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Natalia Kiselova wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: Elections are expected to take place in the Fall of 2026.
- Outcome determination deadline: — If the result is not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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