Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$110.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the market tracks the winner of the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly incorporating any runoff rounds. Outcome determination relies initially on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Central Election Commission website if any ambiguity arises. A long cutoff date through the end of 2027 prevents premature expiration if the election or certification process faces standard procedural delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kostadin Kostadinov will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kostadin Kostadinov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election period: Presidential elections are expected in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
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