Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$69.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win in the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly incorporating a potential second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria if any ambiguity arises. The market includes a generous deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no outcome is determined by that time, which provides ample buffer for any scheduling shifts or certification delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rosen Zhelyazkov will win the next Bulgarian presidential election. It incorporates potential runoff rounds and includes a long-stop date resolving to Other if the outcome remains undetermined by late 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rosen Zhelyazkov wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including through a potential second round. The market resolves to No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria as the official authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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