Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$29.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly identify the event as the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly incorporating any required second round or runoff. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus with a specific fallback to the official Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC) website in case of ambiguity. There is also a defined longstop date of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if an outcome cannot be determined by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Blagomir Kotsev will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Blagomir Kotsev wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including through a second round if held. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the outcome of the election is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Key dates
- Expected election window: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected in the fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not known by this deadline.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) of Bulgaria
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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