Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$78.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on whether Nikolai Denkov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly noting that a potential second-round runoff is included. The determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria if ambiguity occurs. A generous timeout deadline of December 31, 2027 provides sufficient buffer beyond the expected autumn 2026 election date, reducing timing risks.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nikolai Denkov will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria. It includes a fallback resolution to "Other" if the winner is not known by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nikolai Denkov wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if Nikolai Denkov does not win. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results reported by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Resolution cutoff: — If the election result is not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria
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