Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Current price
88¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 88%
$424.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly resolves based on who wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, explicitly covering potential second-round runoffs. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria if there is any ambiguity. An ample deadline through December 31, 2027, provides sufficient time for election certification and legal processes to conclude, minimizing timing friction.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iliana Iotova will win the next presidential election in Bulgaria, which is expected to take place in the Fall of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iliana Iotova wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution is based solely on the official results reported by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC).
Key dates
- Expected election period: Bulgarian presidential elections are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
- Result determination deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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