Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Current price
1.55¢
−1.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$6.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and a straightforward overall condition. Participants should note that the phrase 'serves any time' could leave room for debate regarding whether brief pretrial detention or temporary holding following an arrest qualifies as serving time in jail versus serving a formal sentence. For resolution, official U.S. government records are the primary source, but the market also permits relying on a consensus of credible reporting if official records are not definitive or promptly available.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jerome Powell will serve time in a United States federal, state, or local jail or prison before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if he does not serve time in a qualifying facility by this deadline. Resolution relies primarily on official information from the U.S. Government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- End date: — Cutoff time for Jerome Powell to have served time in a U.S. jail or prison
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. Government or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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