Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Current price
5.25¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.25%
$24.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines a straightforward legislative milestone with a specific bill identifier (H.R.3633) and an explicit deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It designates Congress.gov as the primary official source of record to determine whether the bill has passed both chambers and been signed into law. The rules contain no unusual exceptions or subjective criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and enacted into law by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if the bill is not signed into law by that time. Resolution is determined primarily through Congress.gov's legislation tracker and other official United States government information, with other credible reporting permitted as needed.
Key dates
- Enactment deadline: — Bill must be passed by both chambers and signed into law by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Congress.gov's legislation tracker and other official information from the United States government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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