Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Current price
2.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.95%
$5.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific, designated dashboard page on Arkham's Intel Explorer to track qualifying outflows or swaps. The evaluation window is clearly specified, though readers should note that the tracking window begins on January 9, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET rather than at the very start of the calendar year. A consensus of credible reporting serves only as a fallback if the primary platform becomes permanently unavailable. Because resolution depends directly on whether explicit transaction types appear on the designated entity page during the defined timeframe, the criteria are clear and leave minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether any cryptocurrency wallet attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto initiates an outflow or swap transaction during the designated 2026 timeframe.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham's Intel Explorer shows an Outflow or Swaps transaction between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such transaction occurs within that period. The primary resolution source is Arkham's Intel Explorer Satoshi Nakamoto entity page. If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Key dates
- Start time: — Window for qualifying transactions begins
- End time: — Window for qualifying transactions ends
Resolution source
Arkham's Intel Explorer
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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