Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.7¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and straightforward criteria for resolution. The market resolves to Yes if the Doge-1 satellite launches from its pad by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, verified through official SpaceX video streams or secondary reporting. The rules explicitly clarify that any post-launch anomalies or satellite renaming do not negate a launch, eliminating potential ambiguity around mission success versus launch execution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by the end of 2026, regardless of any post-launch anomalies or satellite name changes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Subsequent anomalies occurring after the launch, such as an explosion, or any name change of the satellite with another vehicle do not affect this outcome. The market resolves to No if the satellite does not successfully launch by this deadline. The outcome is corroborated by official SpaceX video feeds, supplemented by secondary video feeds and written reports if necessary.
Key dates
- Launch deadline: — The satellite must successfully launch from its launch pad by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
SpaceX official video, with secondary video feeds and written reports if necessary
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