Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title suggests the price target must be hit specifically during December, but the resolution text dictates that the condition is satisfied if the target is met at any point between market creation and the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market title suggests the price target must be hit specifically during December, but the resolution text dictates that the condition is satisfied if the target is met at any point between market creation and the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2026. The resolution mechanism relies on an exact metric from a designated URL (Yahoo Finance 1-minute candles during regular trading hours). However, because Yahoo Finance typically retains 1-minute interval data for only a limited historical window (often 30 days), retroactively verifying an intraday low from months prior could present technical verification challenges if not recorded contemporaneously.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Market explained
This market measures whether the S&P 500 (SPX) index reaches a low price of $5,200 or lower by the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below $5,200 at any point between market creation and market close on the final trading day of December 2026. Only prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange count; periods when the market is officially closed are excluded. The market resolves to No if the index does not reach this threshold during the specified period. Yahoo Finance 1-minute chart data serves as the primary resolution source, with fallback data provided in order by Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch if Yahoo Finance data is unavailable.
Resolution source
Yahoo Finance (with fallbacks to Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·