New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Current price
2.25¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what qualifies as a new episode, requiring it to be playable for general United States subscribers and listed as a distinct, official entry on the series title page on Netflix. Promotional content, featurettes, documentaries, and alternate cuts are explicitly excluded unless cataloged as separate numbered or titled episodes. The primary resolution source is directly the official Netflix platform, supplemented by credible reporting if necessary. Participants should note that while the market title does not specify a year, the rules explicitly set the deadline to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series. If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Netflix officially releases a new, previously unavailable episode of Stranger Things playable for general subscribers in the United States by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the episode must be listed as a distinct episode on Netflix, be playable for general US subscribers, and cannot be a featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content unless clearly presented as an official numbered or titled episode. Alternate or extended cuts do not qualify unless listed as a separate episode entry. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using the Stranger Things title page on Netflix, with credible reporting consensus as an alternative.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for a new episode of Stranger Things to be released on Netflix.
Resolution source
Stranger Things title page on Netflix or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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