Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Current price
2.6¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.6%
$255.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The definition of an invasion requires a military offensive intended to establish control over land territory, which excludes limited cross-border operations, drone strikes, or anti-cartel raids that do not seek territorial control. Determining the underlying intent of any military action could be subjective. Furthermore, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or named institutional source, leaving room for judgement by the market decider if events are contested or ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States will launch a military offensive intended to establish control over any Mexican land territory by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States as of market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market is resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the offensive to commence.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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