Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
Current price
2.75¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.75%
$154.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or treaty registry, giving the deciding party substantial latitude to interpret news coverage. While the rules define an invasion as commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over Colombian land territory, assessing the underlying intent of limited military actions, joint anti-narcotics operations, or cross-border raids could lead to disagreement if the scale or objectives of an operation are ambiguous in public reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates a military offensive to control any part of Colombian land territory by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States begins a military offensive to establish control over any part of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States at the time the market was created is considered the sovereign territory of that country. Otherwise, the market resolves No. A consensus of credible reporting determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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