3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, which leaves room for interpretation about which news outlets qualify or whether consensus exists.
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, which leaves room for interpretation about which news outlets qualify or whether consensus exists. The rules specifically exclude artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, territorial sea impacts, and intercepted projectiles, which could surprise participants expecting any military action to count. Furthermore, there is a strict confirmation cutoff: if a qualifying strike occurs before the deadline but cannot be verified by consensus reporting within two days after the close date, the market definitively resolves to No even if later confirmed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
17%
chance▼ −3.5 pts · 24h
The market price rose from 17% to 28%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 22:50 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market measures whether the United States conducts a drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory by December 31, 2026 ET.
The market resolves to Yes if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically impacts terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial sea) in Colombia by the deadline, as announced or credibly reported. Qualifying strikes include aerial bombs, drones, FPV/ATGM strikes, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles launched by US military, intelligence, or government operatives, or any strike claimed by Donald Trump or the US government. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise, or if a strike's timing cannot be confirmed by consensus within two days after the resolution time. A consensus of credible reporting decides resolution.
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·