Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Current price
56.5¢
Implied probability 56.5%
$546K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains a major default condition: if no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to 'No Prison Time'. Someone looking only at the question might assume resolution requires an actual trial and sentencing hearing concluding with zero jail time, but delays, lack of extradition, mistrials, or uncompleted proceedings by the deadline will all trigger a resolution for no prison time. The rules also include leftover language from a multi-bracket market referencing numerical ranges, though the conditions for zero prison time are explicit. Resolution relies primarily on official U.S. court records with credible reporting as a secondary reference.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro receives no prison time in his Southern District of New York indictment case. Unusually, the market also resolves to 'No Prison Time' if no sentencing occurs by the end of 2027, if he is found not guilty, or if there is a mistrial.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (No Prison Time) if the first sentencing rendered in this case includes no jail or prison time, if Maduro is found not guilty, if there is a mistrial, or if no sentencing occurs by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if a prison sentence of any length is imposed in the first sentencing for this case, resolved immediately regardless of appeals and irrespective of whether the term is concurrent or consecutive. Official information from the U.S. court system or U.S. government sources decides the outcome, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Indictment date: — Date Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for sentencing to occur before defaulting to No Prison Time.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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