Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
Current price
0.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$229.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines exact, detailed thresholds for all three branches required for a positive resolution: holding the presidency, securing a majority of voting House seats (with a fallback to the first elected Speaker if no majority exists), and reaching at least 60 Senate seats. Clear mechanics handle uncontested seats, vacancies, party-switching, runoffs, and independent members caucusing. Resolution may be delayed past election night if seats require runoff elections or if independent members have not formally declared their caucus intentions before January 4 following the election. The resolution relies on official state election authorities and congressional records alongside credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and has a seat count of at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the United States House of Representatives and the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. Senate. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party achieves a trifecta—control of the presidency, House, and a Senate supermajority—following the 2026 US midterm elections. The market's resolution is unusual as it considers special elections and runoffs, and defines party affiliation based on expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Control of the House means winning a majority of voting seats. If House control is ambiguous, it resolves based on the party affiliation of the first Speaker selected after the elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if not listed, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party. If a Senate seat is vacant but no election is held in November 2026, it is considered held by the party of the most recent incumbent. The market resolves No if these conditions are not met. The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If these sources do not reach a consensus, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Elections Considered Cutoff: — All Congress elections, including special elections, scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of this date are considered.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
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