Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Current price
1.05¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$2.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on someone judging a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or named authority. The condition requiring incontrovertible proof introduces subjectivity over what evidence meets that standard, though the overall event being measured is otherwise clear. The cutoff date of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET provides a firm deadline, defaulting to a negative outcome if sufficient confirmation is not established before then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that Jeff Epstein, the New York financier, is still alive between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed confirming that New York financier Jeffrey Epstein is still alive.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET showing that Jeff Epstein is still alive. The market resolves to No if no such proof is publicly revealed by that deadline. A consensus of credible sources will serve as the primary source to decide resolution.
Key dates
- End date: — Proof must be publicly revealed before this deadline.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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