Which party will win the Senate in 2028?

This event tracks which political party will win control of the United States Senate following the 2028 United States general election. Each market corresponds to a specific political party seeking majority control of the chamber.

How the outcomes relate

The event contains one market per political party. Because Senate control is defined as holding a majority, winning half the seats along with the Vice Presidency, or holding the affiliation of the first selected President Pro Tempore, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if its specified party wins control of the Senate in the 2028 general election, and No otherwise. Control is determined by winning a majority of voting seats. In the event of a tie (half the seats), control goes to the party that also wins the Vice Presidency in 2028. If still ambiguous, control is assigned to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the 121st Congress. Independent members who caucus (or announce intent to caucus) with a party count toward that party's total. If caucus intents are undetermined, markets may stay open until an announcement or until January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.

Key dates

• Inclusion assessment cutoff: Oct 31, 2028 — Cutoff date for determining regular and special Senate elections scheduled for November 2028.
• General election month: November 2028
• Independent caucus decision deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the election.

Resolution source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 00:32 UTC