Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Democratic Party at 65% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $7.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which political party will win control of the United States Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. Individual markets measure whether a specific party secures a majority of voting seats or wins control via tiebreaker rules for the 120th Congress.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive propositions where each market corresponds to a political party. Because Senate control is defined as holding a majority, a tiebreaker with the Vice Presidency, or the affiliation of the first President Pro Tempore, at most one party market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified party wins control of the Senate by securing a majority of voting seats in the 2026 elections, including qualifying runoffs and attributed uncontested seats. If seats are evenly split, control goes to the party holding half the seats plus the Vice Presidency; if still ambiguous, it goes to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the 120th Congress. Independents count toward a party if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus by January 4th of the following year. Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Key dates
- Qualifying election schedule cutoff: — Senate elections scheduled as of this date are included.
- Election month: — Month of the 2026 midterm elections.
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the election.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 65% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Republican Party | 37% | ▼ 1 | Low | High |