Which party will win the House in 2028?

This event tracks which political party will win control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 general elections. Its markets measure which specific party attains a majority of voting seats or elects the Speaker of the House for the 121st Congress.

How the outcomes relate

The event contains one market per party. Because control of the House is determined by whichever party wins a majority of voting seats or elects the first Speaker if no majority is reached, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if its specified party wins control of the House of Representatives by securing a majority of voting seats in the 2028 election for the 121st Congress. If no party wins a majority, the party affiliated with the first elected Speaker of the House wins control. Seats are attributed based on the party under which members were elected, with runoffs deciding runoff seats. Independents count toward a party if they caucus or announce intent to caucus with it; if undecided by January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, they are excluded from party counts. Otherwise, markets resolve No.

Key dates

• Independent caucus decision deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the 2028 election

Resolution source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 31 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC