Which party will win the House in 2026?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Democratic Party at 91% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $18.4M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections for the United States House of Representatives. Markets measure which political party will win control of the House for the upcoming 120th Congress.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains one market per political party. Control is defined either by winning a majority of voting seats or through the affiliation of the first elected Speaker of the House, meaning exactly one party wins control and at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified party wins control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections, and No otherwise. A party controls the House by winning a majority of voting seats or, if no majority is won, by having the first elected Speaker of the 120th Congress affiliated with that party. Seats are counted based on the party under which members were elected, including runoff results. Independents count toward a party if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus with that party before the specified deadline.
Key dates
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 91% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Republican Party | 10% | ±0 | Low | High |