US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
1 live outcome · highest priced: October 31 at 94% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 31, 2026 · $2M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a ceasefire between the United States and Yemen holds through specific dates, measured by whether the United States conducts qualifying military strikes against Yemen before each deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple timeline thresholds. More than one market can resolve Yes if no qualifying US military action takes place through later dates. If a qualifying strike occurs before an earlier date, subsequent markets with later deadlines will also resolve No.
How it resolves
A market resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date at 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time; otherwise, it resolves to Yes. Qualifying actions are US-initiated air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly impacting terrestrial Yemen or its internal waters, excluding intercepted munitions, small-arms fire, artillery, and actions by proxies. Determination is based on official US and Yemeni statements and credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 9 deadline: October 9 at 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time (year not specified)
- October 31 deadline: October 31 at 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time (year not specified)
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 94% | ▲ 1 | Med | High | |
| October 9 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| October 15 | — | — | Not rated | High | |
| October 12 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| November 30 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| October 18 | — | — | Not rated | High | |
| October 21 | — | — | Med | High |