US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

This event tracks whether an effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran begins by various specified dates, defined as the completion of a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying US military action against Iranian territory.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a ladder of date milestones. Because each market checks whether a qualifying 14-day pause begins between market creation and its specified date, an earlier ceasefire start implies that all subsequent date thresholds will also be met. Consequently, multiple markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if a continuous 14-day period without a qualifying US military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period starts between market creation and the specified target date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, it resolves to No. The 14-day period starts on the date of market creation (if no prior strikes occur) or on the calendar day after the most recent qualifying strike. A qualifying military action is defined as a US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting terrestrial Iran. Non-impacting munitions, interceptions, cyber operations, ground incursions, and artillery do not qualify. A 14-day period is evaluated after an additional 3-day reporting buffer. Resolution is based on a consensus of official US and Iranian information alongside credible reporting.

Key dates

• November 8 deadline: Target date for the November 8 market (year not stated in rules).
• November 15 deadline: Target date for the November 15 market (year not stated in rules).

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 9 Nov 2026, 01:30 UTC