Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Individual markets represent specific percentage margin brackets and winning parties or candidates.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a mutually exclusive set of margin brackets for the election winner. Because each market corresponds to a distinct percentage range of victory (with exact boundary ties resolving to the higher margin bracket), at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the official election result matches its specific candidate/party and margin of victory bracket; otherwise, it resolves No. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' vote shares, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast. Markets resolve once official vote counts are certified, or via an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Key dates

• Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — The 2026 Texas gubernatorial election is expected to take place.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be definitively known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to 'Other'.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 19 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC