Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
1 live outcome · highest priced: No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate at 34% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $65.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks conditional outcomes for the 2026 U.S. Senate midterm election combined with whether a U.S.–Iran diplomatic agreement over Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic is announced by October 23, 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive conditional outcomes combining the occurrence or non-occurrence of a Hormuz agreement with a Republican Senate victory. At most one market can resolve Yes because the Hormuz agreement condition cannot be both met and not met simultaneously.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes only if both of its specified conditions are fulfilled. One market requires a Hormuz Agreement to be announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, while the other requires that no such agreement is announced by that deadline. Both markets require the Republican Party to win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm election (a majority of voting seats, half the seats plus the Vice Presidency, or affiliation of the first selected President Pro Tempore). If a market's required Hormuz outcome fails, it resolves No immediately. Otherwise, resolution occurs after Senate control is determined.
Key dates
- Hormuz Agreement announcement deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- Senate election scheduling snapshot date:
- Independent caucus decision cutoff: — 11:59 PM ET of the calendar year following the election
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 34% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | — | — | Med | Med |