Oregon Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event covers the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election, measuring the margin of victory between the top two candidates based on percentage brackets of valid votes cast.

How the outcomes relate

The event contains distinct percentage brackets for the margin of victory. The rules indicate the market resolves to a specific margin bracket or 'Other', meaning at most one bracket market can resolve Yes. If a result falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket.

How it resolves

Resolution is based on the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates, calculated from total valid votes. A market resolves Yes if the final certified outcome matches its specified candidate party and margin bracket, and No otherwise. If a tie occurs, rules specify resolving to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically, or 'Other' for unlisted candidates. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026
• Resolution cutoff deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — At 11:59 PM ET, unresolved markets default to 'Other'

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:32 UTC