Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory for the 2026 Ohio Senate special election. Markets measure the percentage-point spread between the top two candidates across specific margin brackets for the winning party or candidate.

How the outcomes relate

The markets form mutually exclusive margin brackets tied to the winning candidate or party. At most one market can resolve Yes, as the margin of victory between the first- and second-place candidates will fall into a single bracket. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, the rules specify resolving to the higher margin bracket.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to Yes if the specified candidate or party wins within the designated percentage bracket of the total valid vote count, and No otherwise. The margin is the absolute difference between the vote shares of the top two finishers out of all valid votes cast. Markets resolve once official vote counts are certified, or upon completion of any recount initiated prior to certification. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to Other.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026
• Definitive result resolution deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — At 11:59 PM ET, unresolved markets default to Other

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC