North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 North Carolina Senate election. Its markets measure the winning political party or candidate and the specific percentage margin of victory between the top two candidates based on official certified vote totals.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as mutually exclusive percentage margin brackets for the winning party or candidate. Because the margin of victory falls into a single bracket, at most one market can resolve Yes. If a margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the specified party's candidate wins the election within the defined margin of victory bracket, and No otherwise. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates against total valid votes cast. Markets resolve once official vote counts are certified, remaining open during recounts. If election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to 'Other'. Specific tiebreaking rules apply if candidates receive equal votes.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — Expected date for the 2026 North Carolina Senate election.
• Resolution Cutoff Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC