New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election, measuring which political party's candidate wins and the percentage spread between the top two finishers.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of mutually exclusive percentage brackets covering potential margins of victory for the candidates. Based on the rules, exactly one bracket will resolve Yes corresponding to the final margin of victory, or an 'Other' outcome will resolve Yes under specific conditions.

How it resolves

Markets resolve based on the margin of victory between the top two candidates, calculated as the absolute difference between their percentages of all valid votes cast. A specific market resolves Yes if the final margin falls within its defined percentage bracket; if a value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if unlisted candidates tie, the event resolves to 'Other'. If a recount occurs before certification, markets remain open until completed.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be definitively known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to 'Other'

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC