Minnesota Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 Minnesota Senate election. Markets measure the percentage-point difference between the first-place and second-place candidates based on the total valid votes cast for each party nominee.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of mutually exclusive percentage margin brackets across political parties. Because a single official margin of victory will be certified and ties or borderline values follow specific tiebreaker and rounding rules, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Markets resolve Yes if the official margin of victory—calculated as the absolute difference between the vote shares of the top two candidates out of all valid votes cast—falls within the specified bracket for that party nominee. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If candidates tie for the most votes, specific alphabetical tiebreakers apply. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other.

Key dates

• Expected election day: Nov 3, 2026 — The 2026 Minnesota Senate election is expected to take place.
• Resolution deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — If election results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 19 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC