Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 Michigan Senate election, specifically measuring the winning party or candidate and their percentage margin of victory over the second-place finisher.

How the outcomes relate

Markets in this event represent mutually exclusive margin brackets for the winning candidate. Only one market can resolve Yes based on the certified margin of victory between the top two candidates.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if the official percentage difference between the first-place and second-place candidates matches its specified winning party and margin bracket. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two finishers out of all valid votes cast. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — The date the 2026 Michigan Senate election is expected to take place.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC