Michigan Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event covers the outcome of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election, tracking specific candidate margin-of-victory percentage brackets between the first-place and second-place finishers.

How the outcomes relate

The event comprises multiple mutually exclusive percentage-margin brackets for winning candidates. The rules specify that if a margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket, indicating at most one bracket market will resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the designated candidate or party wins within the specified percentage margin of victory, and No otherwise. The margin is the absolute difference in valid vote shares between the top two candidates, calculated over all valid votes cast. Markets resolve once official vote counts are certified, with recounts delaying resolution until final. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to Other. Specific alphabetical tie-breaking rules apply if candidates tie for first place.

Key dates

• Expected Election Date: Nov 3, 2026 — Date the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is expected to be held.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be definitively known by 11:59 PM ET or markets resolve to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the Michigan state electoral authority responsible for certifying election results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC