Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

This event tracks whether the Houthi movement will capture the city of Taiz, Yemen, by specific calendar deadlines, defined by establishing primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline of individual cutoff dates. If an earlier market resolves to Yes due to capture before its deadline, subsequent later-dated markets would also resolve to Yes, meaning more than one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the Houthis (Ansar Allah, its institutions, or aligned forces) establish primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary raids, shelling, encirclement, or claims without actual control do not qualify. Contested or disputed control does not qualify. If timing cannot be confirmed by the deadline, the market may remain open for up to three calendar days; if control established on or before the deadline is not confirmed by then, it resolves to No.

Key dates

• October 31 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on October 31 (year not specified)
• November 30 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on November 30 (year not specified)

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 6 Nov 2026, 00:29 UTC