Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

This event tracks the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election. Markets measure the percentage point difference between the top two candidates, broken down by party and specific victory margin brackets.

How the outcomes relate

The markets represent distinct, mutually exclusive margin-of-victory ranges for the candidates. Based on the rules, at most one bracket market will resolve Yes depending on the final certified margin between the first-place and second-place candidates.

How it resolves

Markets resolve based on the official vote count for the top two candidates. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates (each candidate's valid votes divided by total valid votes cast). If a margin falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. Specific alphabetical tiebreaking rules apply for ties. If a recount occurs before results are official, resolution waits for recount completion. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to 'Other'.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — The date the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election is expected to be held.
• Definitive result deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Resolution deadline of 11:59 PM ET, after which the market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC